Objective  In rapidly urbanizing deltas, the impacts of climate change and land cover transformation are highly interconnected. Therefore, mapping land cover change (LCC) over time is a relevant research objective to investigate both the impacts of human activities on these urban systems and to assess their degree of vulnerability to natural disasters.

Methods  This paper presents a systematic analysis of LCC patterns in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in both space and time to shed light on spatial impacts of land-use policies on this deltaic megaregion and map out recommendations for responses to climate change mitigation and sustainable urban development.

Results  This paper presents a methodology for mapping LCC at the regional scale over time using R Studio and entirely based on open data, through the implementation of a spatiotemporal matrix. It uses ESA CCI land cover maps and USGS elevation maps to analyze patterns of change in the PRD, one of the fastest urbanizing regions in the world, over years 1992−2015. Through the quantification of LCC patterns at a fine temporal grain, the study reveals how the stages of development in PRD correspond to different trends in the intensity of change in different areas of the delta. In addition, LCC rates are higher in the low elevation coastal zone (LECZ), particularly prone to sea-level rise, stronger storms and other hazards induced by climate change.

Conclusion  The proposed matrix can help decision makers to better understand the spatial and temporal variation of LCC across deltaic regions, that can aid in the formulation of targeted planning strategies to increase resilience in vulnerable coastal areas.