Objective In recent years, frequent storm-surge disasters in coastal cities have severely threatened human safety, property, and public infrastructure. These disasters are exacerbated by the growing imbalance between the supply and demand of urban ecosystem services, driven by extreme weather events and rapid urbanization. Traditional engineering-based flood control measures, such as levees and drainage systems, have proven insufficient to address the escalating risks. Globally, urban stormwater management is transitioning toward ecological solutions, emphasizing the role of flood regulation ecosystem services (FRES) as a sustainable and adaptive strategy for mitigating storm-surge disasters. This research evaluates the spatial-temporal dynamics of FRES supply and demand in coastal urban agglomerations, identifies critical regions with storm – surge combination risk, prioritizes planning interventions, and proposes actionable strategies to enhance urban flood resilience.

Methods Focusing on the Fujian Delta urban agglomeration, an analytical framework is developed to assess FRES supply and demand. On the supply side, the InVEST model — a spatially explicit ecosystem service assessment tool — is employed to quantify FRES provisioning capacity by simulating hydrological processes and revealing spatial distribution patterns. On the demand side, a risk evaluation system is established based on the Hazard – Vulnerability (H – V) framework. Hazard indicators include rainfall intensity, and storm surge frequency and intensity, while vulnerability indicators encompass population density, economic development levels, and infrastructure fragility. The EWM-TOPSIS model and spatial autocorrelation models are integrated to assess compound disaster risks, uncovering spatial clustering and heterogeneity. Subsequently, a Z-score standardization method is applied to analyze the supply – demand matching of ecosystem services, classifying supply – demand relationships into four categories: High supply – high demand, low supply – high demand, low supply – low demand, and high supply – low demand. Finally, Priority Index (PRI) is introduced to rank intervention priorities for critical areas, providing a scientific basis for formulating targeted flood resilience planning strategies to address storm – surge combination risks.

Results Key findings are summarized as follows. First, there exists a pronounced spatial disparity in the supply of FRES between coastal and inland areas within the Fujian Delta. Benefiting from the region’s favorable ecological conditions, inland zones generally exhibit a stronger capacity for flood regulation, with service provision increasing progressively from the coastal fringes to the interior. Second, although the overall risk demand level in the Fujian Delta remains moderate, significant spatial heterogeneity is evident — particularly in coastal and urban core areas, where high risk is prevalent. Third, our analysis uncovers a notable spatial mismatch between FRES supply and demand. The degree of matching demonstrates severe polarization, with nearly 70% of the region falling into the extreme of high or low congruence. This mismatch is compounded by the intrinsic systemic interconnections between ecosystem processes and stormwater runoff; however, current flood protection measures are hindered by spatial fragmentation, which undermines potential synergistic and systemic benefits. Fourth, the prioritization analysis indicates that first- and second-level intervention zones account for nearly 60% of the research area, suggesting that the majority of the Fujian Delta maintains a relatively favorable supply – demand balance. In contrast, fourth- and fifth-level intervention zones, comprising 24.96% of the area, are predominantly distributed in continuous coastal belts. Overall, the spatial planning priority exhibits a hierarchical pattern: Xiamen > Quanzhou > Zhangzhou.

Conclusion Building on this comprehensive assessment, this research proposes a nuanced framework for resilience planning from an ecosystem service perspective. By integrating multisource data, the research establishes a dual assessment system — employing a “water conservation + soil retention” framework for the supply side and a “hazard + vulnerability” framework for the demand side. This methodology enables precise identification of regional FRES capacity and storm – surge disaster risk demand, as well as the analysis of their spatial clustering characteristics. Based on the supply – demand matching outcomes, the research further delineates planning intervention priorities. Accordingly, the resilience space of the Fujian Delta is categorized into three distinct types: High risk — ecological restoration space, medium risk — ecological improvement space, and low risk — ecological protection space. In the high-risk ecological restoration space (e.g., Huli District, Siming District), the immediate priority is to establish robust storm-surge disaster defense systems. Recommended measures include restoring native vegetation, rehabilitating wetland corridors to enhance ecological regulation, executing desilting operations and ecological modifications along critical flood conveyance channels such as the Jiulong River, and incorporating adaptive hydrological and topographical design features in new urban developments while retrofitting green infrastructure in existing urban cores. For medium risk–ecological improvement zones (e.g., Jimei District, Xiangcheng District), the focus should be on harmonizing urban – rural ecological patterns through the strategic use of natural topographical features as buffer barriers, adopting mixed land-use approaches to curb urban sprawl, and upgrading eco-oriented infrastructure networks. Meanwhile, in low risk–ecological protection areas (e.g., Yongchun County, Dehua County), the emphasis should lie in preserving existing ecological barriers by strictly enforcing protection boundaries, promoting an ecologically compensated agricultural economy, safeguarding key ecological sources such as Qingyun Mountain, and enhancing the hydrological regulation capacity of mountainous areas via targeted watershed management projects. The results of this research provide a scientifically grounded basis for targeted storm-surge disaster mitigation practices in coastal urban areas. Moreover, by reorienting urban planning and management from the perspective of ecosystem service supply and demand, the research’s findings offer innovative insights into preventing and mitigating storm-surge disasters.