CN 11-5366/S     ISSN 1673-1530
“风景园林,不只是一本期刊。”

基于人工智能集成开发环境的寒地老年人环境健康风险智能评估系统

Intelligent Environmental Health Risk Assessment System for the Elderly in Cold Regions Based on Artificial Intelligence Integrated Development Environment

  • 摘要:
    目的 构建基于贝叶斯概率框架的寒地老年人环境健康风险预测系统,评估不同户外环境暴露对老年人生理心理指标的影响,为老年健康管理及适老化环境设计提供科学决策支持。
    方法 通过开展沈阳市某社区3种典型户外环境(活动区域、绿道区域、街道区域)的老年人健康指标采集试验,构建环境特征参数和个体敏感度参数框架;结合性别差异特征,建立基于贝叶斯概率框架的环境健康预测模型并交叉验证;利用AI-IDE平台,构建基于移动端的环境健康风险预测系统;基于系统分析参数敏感性,指导设计优化策略。
    结果 1)老年女性环境敏感度显著高于男性;绿道环境对老年人健康效应最佳,表现为收缩压下降和积极情绪增加;2)预测模型具有良好的拟合优度和预测区间覆盖率;移动端预测系统实现了适老化界面设计和实时风险预警;3)确定了最优空间开敞度与绿化覆盖度范围,为环境设计提供了量化指标。
    结论 基于贝叶斯概率框架构建的预测系统实现了寒地老年人环境健康风险的精准评估,通过个体差异参数化与多层级联框架,有效提升了预测风险概率的精度。利用AI-IDE平台加速了从研究到应用的转化过程,为寒地适老化景观环境优化提供了量化指标和科学基础。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective This research aims to develop a comprehensive environmental health risk prediction system for elderly populations in cold regions based on a Bayesian probability framework. The system is designed to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different outdoor environmental exposures on physiological and psychological indicators of elderly individuals, thereby providing evidence-based decision support for elderly health management and elderly-oriented environmental design. The research addresses the unique challenges faced by the elderly in cold regions, where prolonged low temperatures significantly impact cardiovascular health and outdoor activity patterns, creating special health management challenges for this vulnerable population. By incorporating individual difference parameters and environmental characteristic metrics into a predictive framework, the research seeks to bridge the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical applications in elderly-oriented landscape design.
    Methods The research employs a multi-stage methodological approach combining field experimentation, mathematical modeling, and application development. Health indicators of elderly subjects (n = 345, aged 60 − 70) are collected in three distinct outdoor environments (activity area, greenway area, and street area) in a community in Shenyang, China. Data collection was conducted during November − December of 2023 and 2024, with outdoor temperatures ranging from 4°C to 8°C. Environmental parameters are standardized through a two-tier framework quantifying spatial openness (δopen) and green coverage (δgreen) relative to reference standards. Individual sensitivity parameters are established incorporating gender differences, with sensitivity coefficients (η) and regulatory factors (γ) calculated based on physiological responses. A systematic testing is conducted following a standardized protocol consisting of preparation, environmental exposure, and recovery assessment phases. Physiological indicators include systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and pulse pressure (PP), which are measured using an Omron HEM-7136 electronic sphygmomanometer. Psychological variables are assessed using validated Chinese versions of the Profile of Mood States (POMS) and Restoration Outcome Scale (ROS) with Cronbach’s α coefficients of 0.86 and 0.82 respectively. Based on the collected data, a Bayesian probability model is constructed that transforms traditional Bayesian components into environment-specific parameters: Prior probabilities become baseline blood pressure values, likelihood functions become environmental adjustment effects, and posterior distributions become predictive blood pressure values with confidence intervals. The Artificial Intelligence-Integrated Development Environment (AI-IDE) platform is utilized to transform the theoretical framework into a practical application. The development process employs an iterative evolution approach, converting the Bayesian probability framework into executable code through natural language processing capabilities of the AI-IDE platform. The resulting mobile-based environmental health risk prediction system is featured by elderly-oriented interface design with optimized interaction elements for elderly users.
    Results The research identifies significant gender-based differences in environmental sensitivity, with elderly females demonstrating markedly higher sensitivity coefficients compared to males (0.85±0.04 vs. 0.72±0.05) and greater regulatory factors (1.24±0.07 vs. 0.86±0.05). These differences are manifested in physiological responses, with female subjects exhibiting larger blood pressure fluctuations during environmental transitions (8.76±2.31 mmHg vs. 5.24±1.87 mmHg). Among the three outdoor environments, the greenway area produces the most positive health effects, characterized by a mean decrease in systolic blood pressure of 2.7±1.8 mmHg from baseline and improvements in psychological indicators (POMS scores decrease by 2.6±0.9, while ROS scores increase by 0.53±0.12). Conversely, the street area induces negative effects, with SBP increasing by 7.8±2.4 mmHg on average and negative mood indicators rising. The activity area demonstrates intermediate effects with non-significant SBP changes (±1.5 mmHg) and slight mood improvements. The prediction model demonstrates excellent performance metrics across validation testing. The system performs best in predicting responses in the activity area (SBP mean root error: 4.8 mmHg; accuracy rate: 91.2%), with slightly higher error rates in street area, where the accuracy rate is still maintained above 88.5%. Five-fold cross-validation confirms model stability with a CV coefficient of 0.092. Overall model fit achieves an value of 0.87, with prediction interval coverage reaching 93.8%, demonstrating strong explanatory power and reliability. Key health indicators (SBP, POMS, and ROS) all show significant linear relationships between predicted and actual values. The mobile terminal implementation features age-appropriate design elements including large-sized touch control elements (30px × 30px with a minimum spacing of 12mm), high contrast visual feedback, 18px font size, and a three-tiered risk visualization framework using color-coding (green − orange − red) to enhance information accessibility for elderly users.
    Conclusion The prediction system based on the Bayesian probability framework successfully achieves accurate assessment of environmental health risks for elderly individuals in cold regions. The integration of individual difference parameterization through sensitivity coefficients and regulatory factors, combined with a multi-level linkage framework connecting environmental features to health outcomes, significantly improves prediction accuracy for risk probability. The system effectively addresses the common challenges of small-sample health research by leveraging Bayesian approaches to handle uncertainty in parameter distributions, providing robust predictions despite limited training data. The application of AI-IDE platform notably accelerates the transformation process from research findings to practical applications, establishing a seamless bridge between academic knowledge and implementable tools. This approach substantially lowers technical barriers for cross-disciplinary applications by converting research requirements and model logic into structured code through natural language processing. The system provides quantitative indicators and scientific foundations for optimizing elderly-oriented landscape environments in cold regions, including optimal spatial openness range (0.65 − 0.80), recommended green coverage threshold (0.82 − 0.88), and gender-specific environmental transition zone designs. These evidence-based design parameters offer practical guidance for creating outdoor environments that enhance physiological and psychological well-being of elderly populations in cold regions, ultimately supporting healthy aging in place.

     

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